THE RECORD
Predicted Probability vs. Actual Outcome
Too Damn Old calculates a term-completion probability for every sitting member of Congress using SSA actuarial tables. This page tracks that number against what actually happened for members who died in office: the last probability this site recorded, the date it was recorded, and the taxpayer cost of the resulting vacancy. It is a scoreboard, not a memorial. See the methodology for how the underlying probabilities are calculated.
MEMBERS TRACKED
1
AVG LAST RECORDED PROBABILITY
82%
COMBINED TAXPAYER COST
$12M
SENATE ยท SC ยท R
Lindsey Graham
AGE AT DEATH
71
YEARS SERVED
31
DATE LEFT OFFICE
2026-07-11
LAST RECORDED PROBABILITY
82% (2026-07-12)
SPECIAL ELECTION
$12M
His office confirmed a "brief and sudden illness"; no further cause has been disclosed. Source โ